van mieghem
Predicting Time Series of Networked Dynamical Systems without Knowing Topology
Ding, Yanna, Huang, Zijie, Magdon-Ismail, Malik, Gao, Jianxi
Many real-world complex systems, such as epidemic spreading networks and ecosystems, can be modeled as networked dynamical systems that produce multivariate time series. Learning the intrinsic dynamics from observational data is pivotal for forecasting system behaviors and making informed decisions. However, existing methods for modeling networked time series often assume known topologies, whereas real-world networks are typically incomplete or inaccurate, with missing or spurious links that hinder precise predictions. Moreover, while networked time series often originate from diverse topologies, the ability of models to generalize across topologies has not been systematically evaluated. To address these gaps, we propose a novel framework for learning network dynamics directly from observed time-series data, when prior knowledge of graph topology or governing dynamical equations is absent. Our approach leverages continuous graph neural networks with an attention mechanism to construct a latent topology, enabling accurate reconstruction of future trajectories for network states. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic networks demonstrate that our model not only captures dynamics effectively without topology knowledge but also generalizes to unseen time series originating from diverse topologies.
A purely data-driven framework for prediction, optimization, and control of networked processes: application to networked SIS epidemic model
Tavasoli, Ali, Henry, Teague, Shakeri, Heman
Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network structure and the underlying dynamical process, identifying stochastic nonlinear dynamical processes continues to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a simple data-driven framework based on operator-theoretic techniques to identify and control stochastic nonlinear dynamics taking place over large-scale networks. The proposed approach requires no prior knowledge of the network structure and identifies the underlying dynamics solely using a collection of two-step snapshots of the states. This data-driven system identification is achieved by using the Koopman operator to find a low dimensional representation of the dynamical patterns that evolve linearly. Further, we use the global linear Koopman model to solve critical control problems by applying to model predictive control (MPC)--typically, a challenging proposition when applied to large networks. We show that our proposed approach tackles this by converting the original nonlinear programming into a more tractable optimization problem that is both convex and with far fewer variables.
Generic OS X Malware Detection Method Explained
When it comes to detecting OS X malware, the future may not be rooted in machine learning algorithms, but patterns and heatmap visualization, a researcher posits. In an academic paper published by Virus Bulletin on Monday, Vincent Van Mieghem, a former student at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, describes how a recurring pattern he observed in OS X system calls can be used to indicate the presence of malware. Van Mieghem wrote the paper, "Behavioral Detection and Prevention of Malware on OS X," (.PDF) while interning at Fox-IT but has since moved on to PricewaterhouseCoopers' cybersecurity division. By the numbers, the detection method Van Mieghem concocted is a success; it detected infections from 100 percent of malware samples found on OS X systems at the time. The method apparently leaves little room for error too; it resulted in a scant 0 percent to 20 percent false positive rate, depending on the user, according to the paper.